Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Syria win with a probability of 47.85%. A win for Tajikistan had a probability of 27.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Syria win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Tajikistan win was 0-1 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Syria in this match.