Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.54%) and 0-2 (6.03%). The likeliest Neftchi Baku win was 2-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.