

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 85.06%. A draw had a probability of 10.4% and a win for FC Twente had a probability of 4.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.52%) and 4-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.93%), while for a FC Twente win it was 0-1 (1.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
| 85.06% | 10.38% | 4.57% |
| Both teams to score 41.91% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.01% | 31% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.91% | 5.09% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 79.75% | 20.26% |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.16% | 55.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 11.62% | 88.38% |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
| 2-0 @ 12.61% 3-0 @ 12.52% 4-0 @ 9.33% 1-0 @ 8.47% 2-1 @ 7.35% 3-1 @ 7.3% 5-0 @ 5.56% 4-1 @ 5.43% 5-1 @ 3.24% 6-0 @ 2.76% 3-2 @ 2.13% 6-1 @ 1.61% 4-2 @ 1.58% 7-0 @ 1.17% 5-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.06% Total : 85.05% | 1-1 @ 4.93% 0-0 @ 2.84% 2-2 @ 2.14% Other @ 0.46% Total : 10.38% | 0-1 @ 1.66% 1-2 @ 1.44% Other @ 1.48% Total : 4.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
