EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Third Round

Sep 24, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Etihad Stadium

Man City
2 - 1
Watford

Doku (5'), Nunes (38')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Ince (86')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions

Last Game: Man City 2-2 Arsenal
Sunday, September 22 at 4.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Watford

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Norwich 4-1 Watford
Saturday, September 21 at 12.30pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 65.96%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Watford had a probability of 15.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 1-0 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.6%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Manchester City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Manchester City.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Watford
65.96% ( -4.63)	18.72% ( 2.06)	15.32% ( 2.57)

Both teams to score 56.89% (

-0.58)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.68% (

-4.08)

36.32% (

4.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.55% (

-4.6)

58.45% (

4.61)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.74% (

-2.13)

10.27% (

2.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.37% (

-5.1)

33.64% (

5.1)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.4% (

0.84)

36.61% (

-0.84)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.61% (

0.84)

73.39% (

-0.83)

Score Analysis

Manchester City 65.96%

Watford 15.32%

Draw 18.72%

Manchester City	Draw	Watford
2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.37) 2-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 8.55% ( 0.92) 3-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.45) 3-0 @ 7.39% ( -0.63) 4-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.72) 4-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.83) 3-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.31) 5-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.56) 5-0 @ 1.91% ( -0.61) 5-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.25) Other @ 3.99% Total : 65.96%	1-1 @ 8.6% ( 1.09) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.29) 0-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.71) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.2% Total : 18.72%	1-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.63) 0-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.79) 0-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.43) 2-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.24) Other @ 2.23% Total : 15.32%