Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 59.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 16.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.67%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (6.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.