Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 47.25%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-2 (8.32%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.