Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 47.48%. A win for Zambia had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest Zambia win was 1-0 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
