Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mauritius win with a probability of 47.59%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mauritius win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.65%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Malawi win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.