Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 40.04%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Cardiff City |
| 40.04% ( | 26.71% ( | 33.25% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.46% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.49% ( | 53.51% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.97% ( | 75.02% ( |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.78% ( | 26.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.69% ( | 61.31% ( |
| Cardiff City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.74% ( | 30.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.56% ( | 66.43% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United | Draw | Cardiff City |
| 1-0 @ 10.62% ( 2-1 @ 8.5% ( 2-0 @ 7.11% ( 3-1 @ 3.79% ( 3-0 @ 3.17% ( 3-2 @ 2.27% ( 4-1 @ 1.27% ( 4-0 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.25% Total : 40.04% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0-0 @ 7.93% ( 2-2 @ 5.08% ( 3-3 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 9.48% ( 1-2 @ 7.59% ( 0-2 @ 5.67% ( 1-3 @ 3.02% ( 0-3 @ 2.26% ( 2-3 @ 2.02% ( 1-4 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 2.3% Total : 33.25% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leicester CityLeicester | 46 | 31 | 4 | 11 | 89 | 41 | 48 | 97 |
| P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 92 | 57 | 35 | 96 |
| 3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 81 | 43 | 38 | 90 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 26 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 63 | 24 | 87 |
| 5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 47 | 23 | 75 |
| 6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 73 |
| 7 | Hull City | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 60 | 8 | 70 |
| 8 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 71 | 62 | 9 | 69 |
| 9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 64 |
| 10 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 63 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 62 |
| 12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 62 |
| 13 | Millwall | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 59 |
| 14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 59 | 65 | -6 | 57 |
| 15 | Watford | 46 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 61 | 61 | 0 | 56 |
| 16 | Sunderland | 46 | 16 | 8 | 22 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 56 |
| 17 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 56 |
| 18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 56 |
| 19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 60 | 74 | -14 | 53 |
| 20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 53 |
| 21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 51 |
| R | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 50 | 65 | -15 | 50 |
| R | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 9 | 18 | 19 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 45 |
| R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 37 | 89 | -52 | 27 |
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