Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheriff Tiraspol win with a probability of 43.57%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 33.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sheriff Tiraspol win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-2 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sheriff Tiraspol would win this match.