Champions League

Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Aug 6, 2024 at 5pm UK

Tofik Bakhramov

Qarabag
1 - 2
Ludogorets

(Qarabag FK win 8-4 on aggregate)

Juninho (65')
Romao (11'), Juninho (41')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Almeida (56'), Vidal (87')
Verdon (34'), Vidal (45+4'), Duarte (90+3')
Vidal (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League qualifier between Qarabag FK and Ludogorets Razgrad, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

Last Game: Qarabag 5-0 Lincoln
Tuesday, July 30 at 5pm in Champions League

Ludogorets Razgrad

Last Game: Dinamo Minsk 1-0 Ludogorets
Wednesday, July 31 at 7.45pm in Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 33.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
Qarabag FK	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad
41.2%	24.91%	33.89%

Both teams to score 57.61%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.35%

45.65%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.02%

67.97%

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.88%

22.12%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.51%

55.49%

Ludogorets Razgrad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.97%

26.03%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.93%

61.06%

Score Analysis

Qarabag FK 41.2%

Ludogorets Razgrad 33.89%

Draw 24.91%

Qarabag FK	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad
2-1 @ 8.82% 1-0 @ 8.69% 2-0 @ 6.55% 3-1 @ 4.44% 3-0 @ 3.3% 3-2 @ 2.99% 4-1 @ 1.67% 4-0 @ 1.24% 4-2 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.38% Total : 41.2%	1-1 @ 11.69% 2-2 @ 5.94% 0-0 @ 5.76% 3-3 @ 1.34% Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.91%	1-2 @ 7.87% 0-1 @ 7.75% 0-2 @ 5.21% 1-3 @ 3.53% 2-3 @ 2.66% 0-3 @ 2.34% 1-4 @ 1.19% Other @ 3.34% Total : 33.89%