Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 44%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.41%) and 0-1 (5.38%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.