The 2024 season has been a total nightmare for Gremio so far, as they find themselves without a home ground and missing several players due to international duty and injury. While Fortaleza have certainly not set the league alight themselves this term, they are still unbeaten at home and we feel they will be able to edge a victory in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 54.48%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 21.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortaleza in this match.

Result
Fortaleza	Draw	Gremio
54.48% ( -0.33)	24.21% ( -0.06)	21.31% ( 0.38)

Both teams to score 49.94% (

0.69)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.93% (

0.65)

51.07% (

-0.65)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.07% (

0.56)

72.92% (

-0.57)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.35% (

0.12)

18.65% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.03% (

0.2)

49.97% (

-0.2)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.39% (

0.76)

38.61% (

-0.76)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.65% (

0.72)

75.35% (

-0.72)

Score Analysis

Fortaleza 54.47%

Gremio 21.31%

Draw 24.2%

Fortaleza	Draw	Gremio
1-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.27) 2-0 @ 10.15% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.68% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.17% Total : 54.47%	1-1 @ 11.5% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.9% Total : 24.2%	0-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 3.26% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.49% Total : 21.31%