Atlanta United
MLS Playoffs | Regular Season
May 29, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Orlando City

Atlanta
3 - 2
Orlando City

Miranchuk (19', 19'), Slisz (83', 83'), Thiare (90+5', 90+5')
Slisz (63'), Slisz (63'), Klich (79'), Klich (79'), Fortune (82'), Fortune (82')
FT(HT: 2-4)
Araujo (4', 4'), Enrique (32', 32')
Atuesta (90+1'), Gallese (90+3'), Atuesta (90+1'), Gallese (90+3')
Araujo (77'), Araujo (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's MLS Playoffs clash between Atlanta United and Orlando City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlanta United

All competitions
MLS Playoffs
Last Game: Atlanta 4-2 Cincinnati
Monday, May 26 at 12am in Major League Soccer

Orlando City

All competitions
MLS Playoffs
Last Game: Orlando City 1-0 Portland
Sunday, May 25 at 12.30am in MLS Playoffs

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 38.46%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 38.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.66%) and 2-0 (5.3%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 1-2 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.

Result
Atlanta UnitedDrawOrlando City
38.46% (-1.049 -1.05)23.54% (-0.491 -0.49)38.01% (1.542 1.54)
Both teams to score 63.26% (1.969 1.97)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.45% (2.52 2.52)38.55% (-2.517 -2.52)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.15% (2.615 2.62)60.85% (-2.612 -2.61)
Atlanta United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.65% (0.595 0.59)20.35% (-0.593 -0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.24% (0.94 0.94)52.75% (-0.938 -0.94)
Orlando City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.43% (1.895 1.9)20.57% (-1.892 -1.89)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.9% (2.91 2.91)53.09% (-2.91 -2.91)
Score Analysis
    Atlanta United 38.46%
    Orlando City 38.01%
    Draw 23.53%
Atlanta UnitedDrawOrlando City
2-1 @ 8.39% (-0.196 -0.2)
1-0 @ 6.66% (-0.691 -0.69)
2-0 @ 5.3% (-0.444 -0.44)
3-1 @ 4.45% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.52% (0.18 0.18)
3-0 @ 2.82% (-0.18 -0.18)
4-1 @ 1.77% (0.024 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.4% (0.096 0.1)
4-0 @ 1.12% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 38.46%
1-1 @ 10.53% (-0.45 -0.45)
2-2 @ 6.63% (0.223 0.22)
0-0 @ 4.19% (-0.519 -0.52)
3-3 @ 1.86% (0.194 0.19)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 23.53%
1-2 @ 8.33% (0.133 0.13)
0-1 @ 6.62% (-0.407 -0.41)
0-2 @ 5.24% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.39% (0.31 0.31)
2-3 @ 3.5% (0.306 0.31)
0-3 @ 2.76% (0.148 0.15)
1-4 @ 1.74% (0.213 0.21)
2-4 @ 1.38% (0.192 0.19)
0-4 @ 1.09% (0.116 0.12)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 38.01%

How you voted: Atlanta vs Orlando City

Atlanta United
14.3%
Draw
14.3%
Orlando City
71.4%
21
Head to Head
Apr 27, 2025 12.15am
Orlando City
3-0
Atlanta
Muriel (42' pen.), Freeman (51'), Pasalic (67')
Schlegel (90+5')

Slisz (79'), Fortune (90+1')
> Preview
Nov 24, 2024 8.30pm
MLS Cup Conference Semi-Finals
Orlando City
1-0
Atlanta
Enrique (39')

Williams (59')
> Preview
Oct 19, 2024 11pm
Orlando City
1-2
Atlanta
Ojeda (42')
Ojeda (62'), McGuire (90')
Lobzhanidze (7'), Thiare (16')
> Preview
Mar 17, 2024 11.15pm
Atlanta
2-0
Orlando City
Lobzhanidze (9'), Giakoumakis (70')
Wiley (23'), Muyumba (45+1'), Silva (51'), Guzan (73'), Almada (90+6')

Jansson (49')
> Preview
Jul 16, 2023 12.30am
Atlanta
1-2
Orlando City
Wiley (22')
Alonso (59'), Giakoumakis (90+1')
Carlos (25'), McGuire (60')
Jansson (45+3'), Cartagena (45+2'), McGuire (65'), Angulo (86'), Carlos (90+6'), Gallese (90+8')
> Preview