Thursday, June 5

Sports Mole previews Saturday’s French Open final between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

A new women’s French Open champion will be crowned on Saturday when the top two seeds, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, clash on Court Philippe-Chatrier. 

The world No. 1 defeated Iga Swiatek in Thursday’s semi-final, snapping the Pole’s 26-match winning streak and ending the dream of a four-peat to advance to her first Roland Garros title match, where she will face second-time finalist Gauff, whom she bested in the Madrid final last month.

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Match preview

If there were any reward for consistency, Sabalenka would walk away with the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen on Saturday, having reached her third consecutive Grand Slam final — the 2024 US Open, alongside this year’s Australian Open and Roland Garros — and her sixth title match in 2025.

The world No. 1’s results in these decisive matchups have been mixed, winning three and losing as many; however, the first-time French Open finalist, emulating Serena Williams's 2016 achievement of reaching finals in Australia, Roland Garros and Wimbledon, deserves nothing but commendation. 

The Belarusian needed to thwart Swiatek's bid for a fourth consecutive title to reach the last day of the women's singles event for the first time, inflicting the Polish superstar's first loss in the French capital in 1457 days. 

Now in her sixth Grand Slam final, the 27-year-old aims to secure her fourth victory, which would draw her one behind Swiatek, whose title drought now extends to 12 months. 

The defeated three-time defending champion's loss is Sabalenka's gain, and the leading women's player, fresh from matching the Williams sisters' feat of reaching multiple Slam finals in three or more consecutive years — Venus Williams (2000-2003) and Serena Williams (2008-2010) — aspires to enhance her 22-7 career record in the French capital to clinch her first Slam outside of hard courts. 

That task will be easier said than done against Saturday’s American rival, who is determined to rectify her 2022 loss to Swiatek, where she could manage only four games in defeat. 

Returning to the showpiece event with a major title under her belt and three additional years of experience on the tour, the 21-year-old second seed seeks a sixth victory over Sabalenka to double her Grand Slam tally. 

The American No. 1 has dropped just one set en route to her third final at a major event, that against Madison Keys in Wednesday’s quarter-final, and enjoyed a more comfortable afternoon in her semi-final against home wildcard Lois Boisson, whom she dispatched 6-1, 6-2 in one hour and nine minutes. 

Gauff made only 15 unforced errors to her opponent's 33 and notably double-faulted just twice during the contest, significantly limiting the issues that have typically affected her performances and results. 

The 21-year-old's reward for silencing the partisan crowd on Thursday is a return to the showpiece match on Philippe-Chatrier, aiming to improve her impressive 26-5 record in the French capital. 

Having reached the title matches in Madrid and Rome, losing to Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini, the one-time Grand Slam winner hopes to be third-time lucky at the expense of her Belarusian opponent. 

This will be the first women's Grand Slam final between the world No. 1 and No. 2 since Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki at the 2018 Australian Open final, and the first in Paris since Williams and Maria Sharapova faced off in 2013; Gauff aims to emerge victorious and smile this time, hoping to ease the memories of her title match loss three years ago.

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Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round:vs. Kamilla Rakhimova 6-1 6-0 

Second round: vs. Jil Teichmann 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Olga Danilovic 6-2 6-3 

Round of 16: vs. Amanda Anisimova 7-5 6-3 

Quarter-final: vs. Qinwen Zheng 7-6[3] 6-3 

Semi-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 7-6[1] 4-6 6-0

 

Coco Gauff:

First round: vs. Olivia Gadecki 6-2 6-2 

Second round: vs. Tereza Valentova 6-2 6-4 

Third round: vs. Marie Bouzkova 6-1 7-6[3] 

Round of 16: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-0 7-5 

Quarter-final: vs. Madison Keys 6-7[6] 6-4 6-1

Semi-final: vs. Lois Boisson 6-1 6-2 

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Head To Head

Madrid (2025) - Final: Sabalenka 6-3 7-6(3)

WTA Finals (2024) - Semi-final: Gauff 7-6(4) 6-3

Wuhan Open (2024) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 1-6 6-4 6-4

Australian Open (2024) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 7-6 6-4 

US Open (2023) - Final: Gauff 2-6 6-3 6-2 

BNP Paribas Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-4 6-0 

National Bank Open (2022) - Third Round: Gauff 7-5 4-6 7-6 

Italian Open (2021) - Third Round: Gauff 7-5 6-3 

J&T Banka Ostrava Open (2020) - Second Round: Sabalenka 1-6 7-5 7-6 

The Top Seed Open (2020) - Second Round: Gauff 7-6 4-6 6-4

Despite Sabalenka’s 20 titles to Gauff’s nine, their 5-5 head-to-head highlights the closeness of this rivalry.

While the American’s WTA Finals win took the 2023 US Open champion 5-4 up, the world No. 1’s recent victory in Madrid saw the 27-year-old move level again.

The Belarusian’s success in the Spanish capital means both women are tied 1-1 in clay-court meetings, with Gauff beating the top seed in Rome four years ago.

Despite her undeniable success on the tour, Sabalenka’s 20-17 record in title matches highlights the No. 1 player in the world’s mixed performance in decisive matchups — the first seed in Paris holds a 3-3 record in 2025, winning in Brisbane, Miami and Madrid and losing the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Stuttgart finals.

Conversely, Gauff is 10-4 in title matches, though the American has been beaten in consecutive finals against Sabalenka in Madrid and Jasmine Paolini in Rome after winning eight consecutive ones.

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We say: Gauff to win in three sets

Although Sabalenka possesses immense power and is performing at an exceptionally high level, Saturday’s outcome also hinges on which version of Gauff appears on Philippe-Chatrier: Good Coco or Bad Coco. 

When the American minimises her forehand errors and avoids the double faults that sometimes disrupt her performance, her athleticism and all-court intelligence enable the second seed to compete with the very best players. 

While Sabalenka enters Saturday as the favourite, Gauff’s high level when everything clicks suggests she can hold her own against the Belarusian, and we are backing the 2023 US Open champion to augment her Grand Slam tally by inflicting another Slam final defeat on the No. 1 player. ID:574342:1false2false3false: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9349:

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