Preview: French Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Novak Djokovic must solve the riddle of Jannik Sinner in Friday’s French Open semi-final if he intends to progress to an eighth Roland Garros title.

The Serbian superstar delivered a tactically commendable performance in the quarter-final, outlasting last year’s runner-up, Alexander Zverev, thereby setting up a ninth meeting on the ATP Tour with the world No. 1, who is seeking his maiden final appearance in Paris.

Match preview

Djokovic was predicted to defeat Zverev in five sets, but the 24-time Grand Slam champion needed only four to secure a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 victory over last year’s finalist, thwarting the German’s ambition to reach a fifth consecutive semi-final.    

The 38-year-old’s variety and baseline prowess proved too much for the third seed in the three-hour 17-minute contest, taking the three-time French Open champion into his 51st last-four match at a major and a 13th in the French capital.

At 38, the superstar has become the oldest male player since Pancho Gonzales in 1968 to reach this stage in Paris, and the pre-tournament contender aims to advance to an eighth final at Sinner's expense.    

Having started the clay season with rather dismal performances in Monte Carlo and Madrid, the Serbian star built momentum entering this year's Roland Garros by notching his 100th tour-level crown in Geneva just before the tournament.  

Now on a nine-match winning streak, the 24-time Slam winner seeks to defeat the top seed to snap a three-match losing run against the Italian and move one step closer to a historic 25th major.    

Outwitting the world No. 1 will be far from straightforward, especially considering the 23-year-old’s form since returning to the tour at the Rome Masters. 

Although Sinner’s 26-match winning streak was halted by friendly rival Carlos Alcaraz at the Italian Open, the 19-time titlist remains unbeaten in Grand Slams since falling to Daniil Medvedev in last year’s Wimbledon quarter-finals.    

Since that loss, the world's leading player has racked up seven wins en route to the US Open title, another seven in Australia this year as he successfully defended his crown Down Under and five thus far in Paris to reach consecutive semi-finals in the French capital.    

The No. 1 seed’s latest victory was a comprehensive 6-1, 7-5, 6-0 rout of Alexander Bublik, who had previously staged a comeback against Alex de Minaur from two sets down and achieved a stunning triumph over Jack Draper, earning him a spot in his first last-eight contest at the Majors.    

However, the Italian player, who secured a 19th successive win at the Slams, emulating Rafael Nadal as the youngest player to achieve that feat (French Open 2008 to US Open 2008 quarter-final), halted the entertainer’s run to reach his fifth semi-final in the last six Grand Slams.    

Having failed to match his 2020 debut run to the quarter-finals, having lost in the fourth round in consecutive years and suffered defeat in the second round in 2023, Sinner has now advanced to back-to-back semi-finals in the French capital for the first time, thereby improving his record to 21-5 on the Paris clay.    

Now, the Italian star, aiming for his first big title on clay, strives for a 22nd win to inflict Djokovic's first loss here in a completed match since 2022 and book a final date with Alcaraz or countryman Lorenzo Musetti.

Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:

First round: vs. Arthur Rinderknech 6-4 6-3 7-5

Second round: vs. Richard Gasquet 6-3 6-0 6-4

Third round: vs. Jiri Lehecka 6-0 6-1 6-2 

Round of 16: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-1 6-3 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Alexander Bublik 6-1 7-5 6-0

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Mackenzie McDonald 6-3 6-3 6-3 

Second round: vs. Corentin Moutet 6-3 6-2 7-6(1) 

Third round: vs. Filip Misolic 6-3 6-4 6-2 

Round of 16: vs. Cameron Norrie 6-2 6-3 6-2 

Quarter-final: vs. Alexander Zverev 4-6 6-3 6-2 6-4

Head To Head

Shanghai Masters (2024) - Final: Sinner 7-6(4) 6-3

Australian Open (2024) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-1 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3

Davis Cup Finals (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-2 2-6 7-5 

ATP Finals (2023) - Final: Djokovic 6-3 6-3

ATP Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Sinner 7-5 6-7(5) 7-6(2)

Wimbledon (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)  

Wimbledon (2022) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2

Monte-Carlo Masters (2021) - Round of 32: Djokovic 6-4 6-2

Although Djokovic won their first three meetings on tour, Sinner has claimed three of the last four to level their head-to-head (4-4).    

The Italian has emerged victorious in their last three encounters, including a four-set success in their previous Grand Slam clash in Australia last year en route to the 23-year-old's maiden triumph at a Major.    

Significantly, in the last two encounters (Australian Open and Shanghai Masters), Djokovic was unable to produce a single break point on the Sinner serve, a situation the 38-year-old must rectify on Friday to halt the top seed's winning streak in Slams.    

This year's semi-final meeting in Paris will be the first matchup on clay since the Serb’s straight-sets victory in the 2021 Monte Carlo Masters.    

Excluding January's Aussie Open semi-final retirement due to injury, Djokovic boasts a 5-0 record in completed semi-finals over the past year since his loss to Tomas Machac in Geneva; however, Sinner's record is even more impressive, as evidenced by the 23-year-old securing eight consecutive victories at this stage since last year's last-four loss to Alcaraz on Court Philippe-Chatrier.

We say: Sinner to win in four sets

Despite his advancing age, a motivated Djokovic remains difficult to thwart by the best on tour, as demonstrated by last year’s clinical, mechanical performance to defeat Alcaraz for Olympic gold and January’s remarkable comeback win over the Spanish sensation in four sets Down Under.    

However, Sinner presents a formidable challenge — consider the Italian a Djokovic mini-me — and the top seed, whose proficiency in playing tight tennis parallels that of the Serbian, combined with his ball-striking ability on both wings, suggests he can hit through the 24-time Grand Slam champion.    

Thus, it is predicted that Sinner will put an end to the three-time French Open champion’s quest for a 25th major in the semis.

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