Preview: French Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Into another big semi-final, Lorenzo Musetti seeks an upset victory over French Open favourite and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in Friday's last-four contest.

The eighth seed, perhaps fortunate to avoid being defaulted against Frances Tiafoe, defeated the American to advance to his second Grand Slam semi-final, where he faces the Roland Garros favourite for a chance to play in Sunday's title match.

Match preview

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Musetti cited the importance of winning the third set at Tiafoe's expense as pivotal in securing Tuesday's quarter-final victory, but he may have been fortunate to reach that stage.

In the second set, the eighth seed kicked a ball that unintentionally struck a line judge, resulting in a warning that the defeated United States player branded as "comical".

While that call fortunately went in the Italian's favour, the 23-year-old deserved his 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 success that saw him snap a two-match losing streak against the 15th seed to level their head-to-head record at 3-3.

In his maiden semi-final in Paris and the second of his career following last year's Wimbledon run, Musetti, who has improved to 19-3 on clay in 2025, seeks a 20th victory in Friday's semi-final to end Alcaraz's winning streak in the French capital.

Fresh off emulating Rafael Nadal (2007) and Novak Djokovic (2008) as the third-youngest (23 years and 83 days) player to reach the semis at Monte-Carlo, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros in the same season, the Italian aims for the most significant win of his career to reach his maiden Grand Slam final.

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A comprehensive victory over a physically compromised Tommy Paul under the lights on Court Philippe-Chatrier was precisely what the doctor ordered for Alcaraz, even if the fans present would have preferred a more intense spectacle.

The 12th seed claimed only five games across three sets as the defending champion secured a 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 triumph in under two hours, propelling him into his third consecutive last-four match at Roland Garros.

Beating Paul means the 22-year-old has improved to 23-3 at the French Open, where he strives to be the first player to claim consecutive crowns at the tournament since his retired countryman Nadal.

The second seed's latest victory sees him emulate the 14-time Roland Garros champion as the youngest player to feature in seven Grand Slam semi-finals since his fellow countryman in 2008; the four-time major winner seeks to extend his 12-match winning streak at the tournament to reach another final.

Only Holger Rune has bettered Alcaraz on clay this year, showcasing an impressive 20-2 record, which underscores the No. 2 player's form heading into their seventh meeting with the two-time ATP champion.

Tournament so far

Lorenzo Musetti:

First round: vs. Yannick Hanfmann 7-5 6-2 6-0
Second round: vs. Daniel Elahi Galan 6-4 6-0 6-4
Third round: vs. Mariano Navone 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Holger Rune 7-5 3-6 6-3 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Frances Tiafoe 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-2

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Giulio Zeppieri 6-3 6-4 6-2
Second round: vs. Fabian Marozsan 6-1 4-6 6-1 6-2
Third round: vs. Damir Dzumhur 6-1 6-3 4-6 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Ben Shelton 7-6(8) 6-3 4-6 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Tommy Paul 6-0 6-1 6-4

Head To Head

Rome (2025) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-3 7-6(4)

Monte-Carlo (2025) - Final: Alcaraz 3-6 6-1 6-0

Miami (2024) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 6-3 6-3

China Open (2023) - Second Round: Alcaraz 6-2 6-2

French Open (2023) - Fourth round: Alcaraz 6-3 6-2 6-2

Hamburg European Open (2022) - Final: Musetti 6-4 6-7[6] 6-4

Since Musetti beat Alcaraz in the Hamburg final three years ago, the 22-year-old has won five matches in a row on the ATP Tour to lead their head-to-head record 5-1.

The Spaniard's dominance is underscored by the second seed clinching 11 of the 12 sets played in those five matches, including all three in the fourth round in the French capital three years ago.

Alcaraz already leads 2-0 in their clay-court meetings in 2025 and 3-1 overall, with the world No. 2 searching for a third victory this season on the surface over his Italian opponent to improve to 6-1 in their head-to-head.

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We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Since losing to Novak Djokovic in Australia, Alcaraz has secured five consecutive wins over top-10 opponents ahead of his latest matchup with Musetti.

Despite the Italian's determination to end his losing streak against the French Open favourite, the seventh seed is unlikely to have enough to halt the defending champion's march to another final in Paris.

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