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World Cup
Peru national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Mar 21, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Nacional de Lima
Bolivia national football team

Peru
3 - 1
Bolivia

Joya (37'), Guerrero (45'), Flores (82')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Terceros (58' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Peru and Bolivia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Peru

All competitions
Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Peru
Wednesday, November 20 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina121425
2Ecuador12722
3Uruguay12820
4Colombia12519
5Brazil12618
6Paraguay12117
7Bolivia12-1413
8Venezuela12-412
9Chile12-119
10Peru12-127

Bolivia

All competitions
Last Game: Bolivia 2-2 Paraguay
Tuesday, November 19 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina121425
2Ecuador12722
3Uruguay12820
4Colombia12519
5Brazil12618
6Paraguay12117
7Bolivia12-1413
8Venezuela12-412
9Chile12-119
10Peru12-127

We said: Peru 1-0 Bolivia

 Bolivia's away form goes a long way to explain why they are unfancied here, and their two results on the road suggest that the win in Chile was certainly a one off, and they could struggle again here. Peru must take advantage of that, and under new management, there would be no better start for Ibanez than to claim a victory here that would close the gap on Bolivia to just three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 76.71%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 6.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.76%) and 3-0 (12.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (7.33%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (3.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peru would win this match.

Result
PeruDrawBolivia
76.71% (-0.605 -0.61) 16.65% (0.618 0.62) 6.63% (-0.019 -0.02)
Both teams to score 32.71% (-1.765 -1.77)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.47% (-2.533 -2.53)51.52% (2.527 2.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.67% (-2.25 -2.25)73.32% (2.244 2.24)
Peru Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.35% (-0.85899999999999 -0.86)11.64% (0.853 0.85)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.31% (-1.875 -1.88)36.68% (1.869 1.87)
Bolivia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
37.02% (-1.624 -1.62)62.97% (1.618 1.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
7.9% (-0.7751 -0.78)92.09% (0.77 0.77)
Score Analysis
    Peru 76.7%
    Bolivia 6.63%
    Draw 16.65%
PeruDrawBolivia
2-0 @ 16.95% (0.54 0.54)
1-0 @ 15.76% (1.02 1.02)
3-0 @ 12.15% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 7.84% (-0.175 -0.18)
4-0 @ 6.53% (-0.247 -0.25)
3-1 @ 5.62% (-0.329 -0.33)
4-1 @ 3.02% (-0.291 -0.29)
5-0 @ 2.81% (-0.21 -0.21)
3-2 @ 1.3% (-0.153 -0.15)
5-1 @ 1.3% (-0.176 -0.18)
6-0 @ 1.01% (-0.113 -0.11)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 76.7%
0-0 @ 7.33% (0.713 0.71)
1-1 @ 7.29% (0.092 0.09)
2-2 @ 1.81% (-0.145 -0.15)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 16.65%
0-1 @ 3.39% (0.157 0.16)
1-2 @ 1.69% (-0.073 -0.07)
Other @ 1.55%
Total : 6.63%

How you voted: Peru vs Bolivia

Peru
76.9%
Draw
9.6%
Bolivia
13.5%
52
Head to Head
Nov 16, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Bolivia
2-0
Peru
Vaca (20'), Vaca (87')
Justiniano (30'), Vaca (45+1')

Callens (34'), Advincula (87'), Gallese (87'), Reyna (90+2')
> Preview
Nov 20, 2022 2am
International Friendly
Peru
1-0
Bolivia
> Preview
Nov 12, 2021 2am
Group Stage
Peru
3-0
Bolivia
Cueva (32'), Trauco (50')
Gonzales (40')
> Preview
Oct 10, 2021 9pm
Group Stage
Bolivia
1-0
Peru
Vaca (83')
Villarroel (2'), Jusino (24'), Justiniano (74')
Vaca (76')

Gonzales (42'), Cartagena (76')
> Preview
Jun 18, 2019 10.30pm
Group Stage
Bolivia
1-3
Peru
Martins (28' pen.)
Chumacero (30'), Fernandez (72'), Haquin (82')
Guerrero (45'), Farfan (55'), Flores (95')
Zambrano (27'), Guerrero (42')
rhs 2.0
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