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World Cup
Ecuador national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Nov 15, 2024 at 12am UK
Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha
Bolivia national football team

Ecuador
4 - 0
Bolivia

Valencia (26' pen.), Plata (28', 49'), Minda (61')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Chavez (90+4')
Sagredo (24')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Bolivia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Uruguay 0-0 Ecuador
Wednesday, October 16 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina101422
2Colombia10719
3Uruguay10716
4Brazil10616
5Ecuador10216
6Paraguay10013
7Bolivia10-1012
8Venezuela10-211
9Peru10-116
10Chile10-135

Bolivia

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Argentina 6-0 Bolivia
Wednesday, October 16 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina101422
2Colombia10719
3Uruguay10716
4Brazil10616
5Ecuador10216
6Paraguay10013
7Bolivia10-1012
8Venezuela10-211
9Peru10-116
10Chile10-135

We said: Ecuador 2-0 Bolivia

 With six wins in a row at home to Bolivia in qualifying, Ecuador will be confident of extending their unbeaten start at home by returning to winning ways after two 0-0 draws last month. Bolivia have the worst defensive record on the continent, having conceded 21 goals in their 10 games so far, and the win in Chile was certainly an outlier that may not be replicated for some time. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 84.4%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 4.62%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.95%) and 1-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.21%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (1.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawBolivia
84.4% (-0.26600000000001 -0.27) 10.98% (0.18 0.18) 4.62% (0.092000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 39.5% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.86% (-0.45599999999999 -0.46)34.14% (0.462 0.46)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.98% (-0.517 -0.52)56.02% (0.523 0.52)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.2% (-0.133 -0.13)5.8% (0.1389 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
77.69% (-0.39200000000001 -0.39)22.3% (0.398 0.4)
Bolivia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
41.93% (0.024999999999999 0.02)58.06% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.37% (0.013 0.01)89.63% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 84.39%
    Bolivia 4.62%
    Draw 10.98%
EcuadorDrawBolivia
2-0 @ 13.64% (0.09 0.09)
3-0 @ 12.95% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
1-0 @ 9.59% (0.147 0.15)
4-0 @ 9.23% (-0.093 -0.09)
2-1 @ 7.42% (0.056 0.06)
3-1 @ 7.04% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
5-0 @ 5.25% (-0.099 -0.1)
4-1 @ 5.02% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
5-1 @ 2.86% (-0.052 -0.05)
6-0 @ 2.49% (-0.068 -0.07)
3-2 @ 1.92%
4-2 @ 1.36% (-0.012 -0.01)
6-1 @ 1.36% (-0.036 -0.04)
7-0 @ 1.02% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 84.39%
1-1 @ 5.21% (0.083 0.08)
0-0 @ 3.37% (0.08 0.08)
2-2 @ 2.02% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 10.98%
0-1 @ 1.83% (0.045 0.05)
1-2 @ 1.42% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 1.37%
Total : 4.62%

How you voted: Ecuador vs Bolivia

Ecuador
77.4%
Draw
15.1%
Bolivia
7.5%
53
Head to Head
Jun 13, 2024 1.30am
Friendlies 1
Ecuador
3-1
Bolivia
Valencia (18'), Yeboah (25'), Caicedo (70' pen.)
Gruezo (80'), Caicedo (86')
Terceros (88')
Fernandez (9'), Algaranaz (31'), Villamil (70'), Justiniano (77'), Ramallo (82')
> Preview
Oct 13, 2023 12am
Group Stage
Bolivia
1-2
Ecuador
Ramallo (83')
Cuellar (90')
Paez (45'), Rodriguez (90+6')
> Preview
Jun 18, 2023 12.30am
Friendlies 1
Ecuador
1-0
Bolivia
Valencia (69')
Estupinan (13'), Pacho (36')

Roca (41'), Terceros (53'), Arrascaita (73'), Ursino (85')
> Preview
Oct 8, 2021 1.30am
Group Stage
Ecuador
3-0
Bolivia
> Preview
Mar 29, 2021 9.30pm
Friendlies 1
Ecuador
2-1
Bolivia
Martinez (37'), Estrada (59')
Arroyo (55')
Ramallo (90+4')
Montero (12')
rhs 2.0
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