Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ternana win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for Parma had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ternana win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.96%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Parma win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ternana would win this match.
