Atalanta are beginning to find some form at just the right time, while Spezia are becoming more desperate to end their winless streak. Taking both things into consideration, we can only see the home side running out comfortable victors.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 67.69%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 13.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.88%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (4.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
0.37) 
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