Serie A | Gameweek 17
Dec 22, 2024 at 5pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Atalanta3 - 2Empoli
We said: Atalanta BC 2-0 Empoli
Atalanta have drawn only one of their last 23 Serie A home fixtures - and none since mid-April - while averaging 2.6 goals per game. A clear outcome should be expected, then, and even Empoli's admirable away record cannot help them defeat La Dea. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 72.94%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 10.39%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.22%) and 3-0 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.91%), while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (3.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Empoli |
72.94% ( 4.48) | 16.67% ( -2.05) | 10.39% ( -2.44) |
| Both teams to score 48.81% ( -1.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
