Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 61.17%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Watford had a probability of 17.04%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.08%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Watford win it was 1-0 (5.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.