Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland Under-21s win with a probability of 55.46%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.78%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sunderland Under-21s would win this match.