World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Mar 21, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Nacional de Lima

Peru
3 - 1
Bolivia

Joya (37', 37'), Guerrero (45', 45'), Flores (82', 82')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Terceros (58' pen., 58' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Peru and Bolivia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Peru

All competitions

Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Peru
Wednesday, November 20 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Uruguay	12	8	20
4	Colombia	12	5	19
5	Brazil	12	6	18
6	Paraguay	12	1	17
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	12	-11	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Bolivia

All competitions

Last Game: Bolivia 2-2 Paraguay
Tuesday, November 19 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Uruguay	12	8	20
4	Colombia	12	5	19
5	Brazil	12	6	18
6	Paraguay	12	1	17
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	12	-11	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 76.71%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 6.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.76%) and 3-0 (12.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (7.33%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (3.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peru would win this match.

Result
Peru	Draw	Bolivia
76.71% ( -0.61)	16.65% ( 0.62)	6.63% ( -0.02)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Peru	Draw	Bolivia
2-0 @ 16.95% ( 0.54) 1-0 @ 15.76% ( 1.02) 3-0 @ 12.15% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 5.62% ( -0.33) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.29) 5-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.15) 5-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.18) 6-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.41% Total : 76.7%	0-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.71) 1-1 @ 7.29% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.21% Total : 16.65%	0-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.55% Total : 6.63%