Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 24, 2025 at 3am UK
Estadio Olimpico de Riobamba

Mushuc Runa
3 - 0
Union

Alfredo Orejuela Quinonez (3', 3'), Joshue Caicedo Lopez (52', 52'), Penilla (90+1', 90+1')
Peralta (80'), Peralta (80')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Martinez (44'), Martinez (44'), Palacios (76'), Palacios (76')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Mushuc Runa and Union.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mushuc Runa

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Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-2 Mushuc Runa
Thursday, April 10 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Union

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Union 1-1 Newell's OB
Saturday, April 19 at 1.30am in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 39.59%. A win for Mushuc Runa had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.85%) and 1-2 (7.74%). The likeliest Mushuc Runa win was 1-0 (11.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.

Result
Mushuc RunaDrawUnion
30.94% (0.348 0.35)29.46% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)39.59% (-0.273 -0.27)
Both teams to score 42.95% (0.305 0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.16% (0.319 0.32)63.83% (-0.318 -0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
16.93% (0.228 0.23)83.07% (-0.226 -0.23)
Mushuc Runa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.68% (0.447 0.45)37.31% (-0.445 -0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.9% (0.436 0.44)74.09% (-0.434 -0.43)
Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.52%31.47%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.14% (0.00099999999999767 0)67.86%
Score Analysis
    Mushuc Runa 30.94%
    Union 39.59%
    Draw 29.45%
Mushuc RunaDrawUnion
1-0 @ 11.57%
2-1 @ 6.6% (0.08 0.08)
2-0 @ 5.71% (0.07 0.07)
3-1 @ 2.17% (0.052 0.05)
3-0 @ 1.88% (0.046 0.05)
3-2 @ 1.25% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 30.94%
1-1 @ 13.38%
0-0 @ 11.74% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-2 @ 3.81% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 0.52%
Total : 29.45%
0-1 @ 13.57% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-2 @ 7.85% (-0.094 -0.09)
1-2 @ 7.74% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 3.02% (-0.037 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.98% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.47% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 39.59%