

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 48.02%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Minnesota United | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 48.02% ( | 22.82% ( | 29.15% ( |
| Both teams to score 62.75% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.08% ( | 37.92% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.83% ( | 60.17% ( |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.87% ( | 16.13% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.44% ( | 45.56% ( |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.82% ( | 25.18% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.1% ( | 59.9% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Minnesota United | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 1-0 @ 7.41% ( 2-0 @ 6.76% ( 3-1 @ 5.67% ( 3-0 @ 4.11% ( 3-2 @ 3.91% 4-1 @ 2.59% ( 4-0 @ 1.88% ( 4-2 @ 1.78% ( 5-1 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 3.66% Total : 48.02% | 1-1 @ 10.22% ( 2-2 @ 6.43% ( 0-0 @ 4.06% ( 3-3 @ 1.8% ( Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.82% | 1-2 @ 7.05% ( 0-1 @ 5.6% ( 0-2 @ 3.86% ( 1-3 @ 3.24% ( 2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0-3 @ 1.78% ( 1-4 @ 1.12% ( 2-4 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 2.53% Total : 29.15% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 35 |
| 2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 25 |
| 6 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
| 7 | Toronto | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
| 8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Nashville SCNashville | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | DC United | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 19 |
| 11 | Orlando City | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 17 |
| 12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 17 |
| 13 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 16 |
| 14 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 13 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 33 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 30 |
| 3 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 29 |
| 4 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 28 |
| 5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
| 6 | Austin FCAustin | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 22 |
| 9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 | St Louis City | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 14 |
| 13 | Dallas | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |
