Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 40.65%. A win for Metz had a probability of 31.39% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.