Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 44.75%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.7%) and 2-1 (8.68%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
