Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.63%. A win for Mazatlan had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Mazatlan win was 0-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
