Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 (10.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Harrogate Town | Draw | AFC Wimbledon | 
| 39.56% (  -0.01) | 27.71% (  -0) | 32.74% (  0.01) | 
| Both teams to score 48.28% (  0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 42.53% (  0.02) | 57.47% (  -0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 21.73% (  0.01) | 78.27% (  -0.01) | 
| Harrogate Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 71.65% (  0) | 28.35% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.91% (  0) | 64.08% | 
| AFC Wimbledon Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 67.38% (  0.02) | 32.61% (  -0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.84% (  0.02) | 69.16% (  -0.02) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Harrogate Town | Draw | AFC Wimbledon | 
| 1-0 @ 11.65% (  -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.23% 2-0 @ 7.35% (  -0) 3-1 @ 3.46% 3-0 @ 3.09% (  -0) 3-2 @ 1.94% (  0) 4-1 @ 1.09% 4-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.78% Total : 39.55% | 1-1 @ 13.05% 0-0 @ 9.25% (  -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.61% (  0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.7% | 0-1 @ 10.35% 1-2 @ 7.32% (  0) 0-2 @ 5.8% (  0) 1-3 @ 2.73% (  0) 0-3 @ 2.17% (  0) 2-3 @ 1.72% (  0) Other @ 2.64% Total : 32.73% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 46 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 91 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 46 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 85 | 
| P | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 83 | 
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 79 | 
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 76 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 61 | 43 | 18 | 76 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 75 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 72 | 55 | 17 | 75 | 
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 62 | 
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 61 | 
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 61 | 
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 58 | 
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 58 | 
| 14 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 58 | 
| 15 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53 | 56 | -3 | 57 | 
| 16 | Walsall | 46 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 55 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 55 | 
| 18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 55 | 
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 52 | 
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 49 | 
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 48 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 46 | 
| R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 52 | 78 | -26 | 43 | 
| R | Rochdale | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 38 | 
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