

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tranmere Rovers win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 33.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tranmere Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Tranmere Rovers |
| 33.1% ( | 27.6% ( | 39.3% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.68% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.99% ( | 57.01% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.09% ( | 77.9% ( |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.86% ( | 32.13% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.38% ( | 68.61% ( |
| Tranmere Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.72% ( | 28.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.01% ( | 63.99% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Tranmere Rovers |
| 1-0 @ 10.31% 2-1 @ 7.4% ( 2-0 @ 5.86% ( 3-1 @ 2.8% ( 3-0 @ 2.22% ( 3-2 @ 1.77% ( Other @ 2.75% Total : 33.09% | 1-1 @ 13.02% 0-0 @ 9.09% ( 2-2 @ 4.67% ( Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.59% | 0-1 @ 11.47% ( 1-2 @ 8.23% ( 0-2 @ 7.25% ( 1-3 @ 3.47% ( 0-3 @ 3.05% ( 2-3 @ 1.97% ( 1-4 @ 1.09% 0-4 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 1.8% Total : 39.29% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 46 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 91 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 46 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 85 |
| P | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 83 |
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 79 |
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 76 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 61 | 43 | 18 | 76 |
| 7 | Salford City | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 75 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 72 | 55 | 17 | 75 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 62 |
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 61 |
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 61 |
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 58 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 58 |
| 14 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 58 |
| 15 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53 | 56 | -3 | 57 |
| 16 | Walsall | 46 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 55 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 55 |
| 18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 55 |
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 52 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 49 |
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 48 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 46 |
| R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 52 | 78 | -26 | 43 |
| R | Rochdale | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 38 |
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