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League One
Derby logo
League One | Gameweek 38
Mar 12, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Reading logo

Derby
2 - 1
Reading

Gayle (53'), Hourihane (70' pen.)
Cashin (47'), Adams (57'), Sibley (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Smith (56')
Bindon (10'), Yiadom (32'), Mola (49'), Pereira (69'), Wareham (90+4')
Yiadom (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Reading, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 0-3 Derby
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

Reading

All competitions
Last Game: Reading 1-2 Wycombe
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Reading

 Derby would have certainly taken confidence from their last two successful outings, and we think that they will continue to build momentum by claiming all three points in Tuesday's midweek fixture against an inconsistent Reading team. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 18.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawReading
59.58% (-0.133 -0.13) 21.57% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 18.85% (0.145 0.15)
Both teams to score 54.4% (0.321 0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.81% (0.294 0.29)43.19% (-0.29499999999999 -0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.41% (0.288 0.29)65.59% (-0.291 -0.29)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.88% (0.054000000000002 0.05)14.12% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.24% (0.107 0.11)41.76% (-0.11 -0.11)
Reading Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.35% (0.335 0.34)36.65% (-0.337 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.56% (0.33 0.33)73.44% (-0.333 -0.33)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 59.58%
    Reading 18.85%
    Draw 21.57%
Derby CountyDrawReading
1-0 @ 10.13% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-1 @ 9.95% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.92% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
3-1 @ 6.5% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 6.47% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.26% (0.037 0.04)
4-1 @ 3.18% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.17% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.6% (0.021 0.02)
5-1 @ 1.25% (0.008 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.24% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 59.58%
1-1 @ 10.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.17% (-0.068 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5% (0.046 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.09% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 21.57%
0-1 @ 5.19% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 5.1% (0.037 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.61% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.71% (0.027 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.67% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 18.85%

How you voted: Derby vs Reading

Derby County
84.3%
Draw
8.6%
Reading
7.1%
70
Head to Head
Jan 23, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 18
Reading
1-0
Derby
Mukairu (54')
Mbengue (73')
> Preview
Jan 3, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 26
Reading
2-2
Derby
Hoilett (37', 56')
Laurent (45')
Kazim-Richards (86'), Davies (90+1')
Davies (82'), Byrne (90+6')
> Preview
Sep 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
Derby
1-0
Reading
Forsyth (33')
Stearman (16'), Byrne (59'), Shinnie (74'), Lawrence (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 5, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 40
Reading
3-1
Derby
> Match Report
Sep 12, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 1
Derby
0-2
Reading

Shinnie (37'), Sibley (45+2'), Byrne (47')
Joao (40'), Ejaria (45+1')
Olise (64'), Richards (90+3')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth462813578413797
3Bolton WanderersBolton462512986513587
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough462591289612884
5Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4622111379562377
6Barnsley4621131282641876
7Lincoln CityLincoln4620141265402574
8Blackpool4621101565481773
9Stevenage4619141357461171
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe461714156055565
11Leyton Orient461811175355-265
12Wigan AthleticWigan462010166356762
13Exeter CityExeter461710194661-1561
14Northampton TownNorthampton46179205766-960
15Bristol Rovers46169215268-1657
16Charlton AthleticCharlton461120156465-153
17Reading461611196870-253
18Cambridge UnitedCambridge461212223961-2248
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury46139243567-3248
20Burton Albion461210243967-2846
RCheltenham TownCheltenham46128264165-2444
RFleetwood TownFleetwood461013234972-2343
RPort Vale461011254174-3341
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4679304181-4030
> League One Full Table


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