

| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 30 | 73 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 22 | 71 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 38 | 23 | 70 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | -12 | 42 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 38 | -13 | 42 |
| 15 | Getafe | 38 | -8 | 39 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 65.96%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 13.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.29%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Espanyol |
| 65.96% | 20.32% | 13.71% |
| Both teams to score 47.09% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.88% | 47.12% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.64% | 69.36% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.56% | 13.43% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.6% | 40.4% |
| Espanyol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.39% | 45.6% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.59% | 81.41% |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Espanyol |
| 2-0 @ 12.34% 1-0 @ 12.29% 2-1 @ 9.69% 3-0 @ 8.26% 3-1 @ 6.49% 4-0 @ 4.15% 4-1 @ 3.26% 3-2 @ 2.55% 5-0 @ 1.66% 5-1 @ 1.31% 4-2 @ 1.28% Other @ 2.69% Total : 65.95% | 1-1 @ 9.66% 0-0 @ 6.13% 2-2 @ 3.81% Other @ 0.74% Total : 20.32% | 0-1 @ 4.81% 1-2 @ 3.79% 0-2 @ 1.89% 2-3 @ 1% 1-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.24% Total : 13.71% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 36 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 18 | 48 | 85 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 36 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 72 | 34 | 38 | 74 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 66 | 30 | 36 | 73 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 36 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 36 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 56 | 36 | 20 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 56 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 35 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 50 |
| 8 | GironaGirona | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 51 | 5 | 49 |
| 9 | Sevilla | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 47 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 46 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 35 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 44 |
| 13 | Valencia | 35 | 11 | 7 | 17 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 40 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 40 |
| 15 | Almeria | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 39 |
| 16 | CadizCadiz | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 38 |
| 17 | Getafe | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 38 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 36 | 11 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 38 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 36 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 35 |
| R | ElcheElche | 36 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 28 | 66 | -38 | 21 |
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