Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

It seems as though the pressure of being the hosts is getting the better of the Americans, who look vulnerable defensively and incredibly inconsistent. There is little pressure on Uruguay heading into this fixture, but knowing Bielsa, we expect them to play aggressively and put away the opportunities presented to them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 40.65%. A win for Uruguay had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Uruguay win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.

Result
USA	Draw	Uruguay
40.65% ( -0.09)	26.59% ( 0.02)	32.76% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 51.71% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.87% (

-0.05)

53.13% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.29% (

-0.04)

74.71% (

0.04)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.28% (

-0.07)

25.72% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.36% (

-0.09)

60.64% (

0.1)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.61% (

0.03)

30.39% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.41% (

0.03)

66.59% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

USA 40.65%

Uruguay 32.76%

Draw 26.59%

USA	Draw	Uruguay
1-0 @ 10.61% 2-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 40.65%	1-1 @ 12.64% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.82% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.11% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.59%	0-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.53% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.54% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.03% Other @ 3.17% Total : 32.76%