Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 38.05%. A win for Shanghai SIPG had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Shanghai SIPG win was 0-1 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
