Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 34.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (9.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.