Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 44.07%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 30.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.