Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Greuther Furth win was 1-0 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Greuther Furth | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 34.11% | 26.23% | 39.66% |
| Both teams to score 53.19% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.62% | 51.38% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.8% | 73.2% |
| Greuther Furth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.34% | 28.66% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.53% | 64.47% |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.55% | 25.44% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.73% | 60.27% |
| Score Analysis |
| Greuther Furth | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 1-0 @ 9.11% 2-1 @ 7.79% 2-0 @ 5.69% 3-1 @ 3.25% 3-0 @ 2.37% 3-2 @ 2.22% 4-1 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.65% Total : 34.11% | 1-1 @ 12.47% 0-0 @ 7.29% 2-2 @ 5.33% 3-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.23% | 0-1 @ 9.98% 1-2 @ 8.54% 0-2 @ 6.83% 1-3 @ 3.89% 0-3 @ 3.12% 2-3 @ 2.43% 1-4 @ 1.33% 0-4 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.48% Total : 39.66% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 97 | 37 | 60 | 77 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 85 | 52 | 33 | 69 |
| 3 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 80 | 47 | 33 | 64 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 72 | 37 | 35 | 58 |
| 5 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 44 | 6 | 57 |
| 6 | Freiburg | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 55 |
| 7 | FC Koln | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 52 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 46 |
| 9 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 58 | 60 | -2 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 45 |
| 11 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 42 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 42 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 38 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 33 |
| 16 | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 33 |
| R | Arminia Bielefeld | 34 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 28 |
| R | Greuther Furth | 34 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 82 | -54 | 18 |
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