Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 0-1 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortaleza in this match.
