Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Cape Verde in this match.