Preview: Wimbledon: Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Taylor Fritz’s reward for reaching his first Wimbledon semi-final is a clash with two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in the first men’s semi-final on Friday.

The American No. 1, who lost thrilling five-setters to Rafael Nadal and Lorenzo Musetti in 2022 and 2024, avoided another decider this time by defeating Karen Khachanov in four sets, thereby setting up a third encounter on the ATP Tour against Alcaraz, who is two wins away from a French Open-Wimbledon double in consecutive years.

Match preview

Fritz joked during his on-court interview that he was relieved to have avoided another five-set quarter-final at Wimbledon, having suffered heartbreak against Nadal in 2022 and Musetti 12 months ago.

The American was one set away from beating the 22-time Grand Slam champion from Spain before losing the fourth and failing in a deciding set tie-break three years ago, and although he never had the same advantage against Musetti, he levelled the match and probably hoped for a different outcome in a fifth set where he won just a single game.

A year later, the 27-year-old overcame a third-set collapse and a swift medical response to play clinical tennis and win a fourth-set tie-break, securing his first victory over Khachanov in three attempts and advancing to his maiden semi-final at the All England Club, his second overall.

Last year’s run to the US Open semi-final was marked by a comeback victory over Frances Tiafoe en route to finishing runner-up on home soil; however, while he entered that match as the favourite to beat Big Foe, facing Alcaraz now presents a different challenge for the fifth seed.

Nonetheless, Fritz, a 10-time ATP champion with titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne, has won more matches on grass this year (13) and aims to reach 14 against the second seed.

Alcaraz's bid for back-to-back Channel Slams was boosted after a stunning performance to beat Cameron Norrie on Tuesday and silence the Centre Court crowd.

The 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 victory marked his 23rd consecutive win since losing to Holger Rune in the Barcelona Open final in April, and his record now stands at 47-5 for the season.

After surviving a five-set opening round against the now-retired Fabio Fognini, the 22-year-old's level has improved as the tournament has progressed, demonstrated by performances against Andrey Rublev and Norrie. 

Beating the British player comfortably was especially surprising, considering the 2022 semi-finalist had won two of their previous matchups before Tuesday.

The nature of that win over the Brit was ominous for the rest of the draw, with the three-peat-chasing star now at 76 Grand Slam wins and the favourite on Friday to earn his 77th.

Having never lost to Fritz on the men's tour, Alcaraz enters a third straight semi-final at SW19 in good form; previous runs to this stage ended with victories over Daniil Medvedev in 2023 and 2024, and another triumph is expected for the No. 2 seed, who aims to improve his 23-2 record at the All England Club.

Tournament so far

Taylor Fritz:

First round: vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 6-7(6) 6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(6) 6-4

Second round: vs. Gabriel Diallo 3-6 6-3 7-6(0) 4-6 6-3

Third round: vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-4 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1

Fourth round: vs. Jordan Thompson 6-1 3-0 ret.

Quarter-final: vs. Karen Khachanov 6-3 6-4 1-6 7-6(4)

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Fabio Fognini 7-5 6-7(5) 7-5 2-6 6-1

Second round: vs. Oliver Tarvet 6-1 6-4 6-4

Third round: vs. Jan-Lennard Struff 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4

Fourth round: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Cameron Norrie 6-2 6-3 6-3

Head To Head

Laver Cup (2024) - Round robin: Alcaraz 6-2 7-5

Miami Masters (2023) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 6-4 6-2

Although they have never met on grass, Alcaraz holds a 2-0 edge over Fritz on the ATP Tour, having not lost a set to the American.

After losing serve at least twice in the first three rounds, the second seed was broken once by Rublev in the last 16 and survived five break points against Norrie, whom he defeated with 89% of his first-serve points won, further highlighting his improved form as the tournament has advanced.

Fritz has been more consistent on serve throughout the tournament despite playing two five-setters — he conceded no break points against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round and lost serve three times in the second round against Gabriel Diallo; he lost serve once in his last-16 win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and three times in the quarter-final victory over Khachanov.

Interestingly, Fritz slightly edges Alcaraz in winning first and second-serve points — 85% to 77% and 69% to 53%; however, the second seed has claimed a remarkable 27 return games to the fifth seed’s 19.

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

While Alcaraz could win in three, four or five sets, depending on his level and consistency, Fritz should not be underestimated.

The American’s serve has been impressive throughout the tournament, suggesting he could claim a set on Friday.

Nevertheless, Alcaraz’s variety and improvement as the tournament has advanced make us back the favourite to beat the No. 5 seed in four sets and set up an exciting final against Jannik Sinner or Novak Djokovic.

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