Preview: Wimbledon: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Laura Siegemund - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Preview: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Laura Siegemund - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far
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Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s Wimbledon quarter-final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Laura Siegemund, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Aryna Sabalenka enters Tuesday’s Wimbledon quarter-final against Laura Siegemund as the clear favourite, but she will be cautious of an upset from the first-time quarter-finalist at the All England Club.

The 37-year-old veteran, who has already beaten a former Grand Slam winner in Madison Keys, aims for another top-10 win at a Slam, having upset Qinwen Zheng and Keys this year, but faces her toughest test against the top-ranked player on the women’s tour.




Match preview

In every match at this year’s Championships, Sabalenka has faced opponents who have elevated their game in hopes of knocking her out; however, each time, she has raised her level to prevail over every challenger.

A quick glance at her results so far shows that the top seed has won every set on her way to another quarter-final at SW19, but the 27-year-old has had to fight hard to fend off Marie Bouzkova, British No. 1 Emma Raducanu and former doubles partner Elise Mertens to reach the last eight.

Sunday’s victory over Mertens was the No. 1 seed’s third in a row with the same scoreline — 7-6, 6-4 or 6-4, 7-6 — highlighting how closely fought her previous wins have been, and she will expect another tough encounter in her third meeting with Siegemund.

Having improved to 46-8 for the season, the 20-time WTA champion is aiming for her 47th win, the most on the tour, to keep her dream alive of reaching a first Wimbledon final and third consecutive Slam final in 2025.

While the world No. 1 cannot look too far ahead, with two more victories needed to reach another major final, Sabalenka, who holds a 15-5 record at Wimbledon and has reached the semi-finals twice — in 2021 and 2023 — is seeking another deep run by defeating the first-time quarter-finalist at SW19.

Laura Siegemund in action at Wimbledon on July 6, 2025

Forget her first-time appearance in the last eight at Wimbledon, Tuesday marks Siegemund's first Grand Slam quarter-final in five years and only her second overall since a remarkable run at Roland Garros in 2020.

There was little indication that the 37-year-old was poised to make it to the second week of the tournament, having exited in the third round at the Australian Open and the first round at Roland Garros; her early exits in the warm-up events before Wimbledon — at Nottingham and Bad Homburg — also offered little promise.

However, the experienced German has advanced at her third Slam of the year without dropping a set, notably defeating a Grand Slam runner-up — Leylah Fernandez — in the second round and the current Australian Open champion Keys in the third, reaching this stage for only the second time in her career.

Siegemund had never progressed beyond the third round at Wimbledon before this year, but she has now broken new ground at the All England Club and enters Tuesday aiming for the biggest victory of her career by upsetting the world No. 1 and reaching a maiden Grand Slam semi-final.



Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Carson Branstine 6-1 7-5

Second round: vs. Marie Bouzkova 7-6(4) 6-4

Third round: vs. Emma Raducanu 7-6(6) 6-4

Fourth round: vs. Elise Mertens 6-4 7-6(4)

Laura Siegemund:

First round: vs. Peyton Stearns 6-4 6-2

Second round: vs. Leylah Fernandez 6-2 6-3

Third round: vs. Madison Keys 6-3 6-3

Fourth round: vs. Solana Sierra 6-3 6-2



Head To Head

Strasbourg WTA (2019) – Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-4 6-3

Fed Cup (2019) – Round 1: Sabalenka 6-1 6-1

Sabalenka holds a 2-0 record against Siegemund and is seeking her third straight win over the German veteran.

Having not dropped a set in previous matches against the 37-year-old, the Belarusian aims to maintain that run against a player who is 5-13 overall against top-five opponents, with just two wins in the last 12 encounters with the elite group.

Nevertheless, Siegemund won her last match against a top-five player, stunning Zheng at the Australian Open, and will hope for a similar outcome against the world No. 1.



SM words green background

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets


While Siegemund has not dropped a set at SW19, Sabalenka has consistently raised her level despite facing various challenges since the second round.

Therefore, the top player is expected to record another hard-fought win in two sets to reach her third Wimbledon semi-final, where she could face either Amanda Anisimova or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the semi-finals.


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Written by
Anthony Brown

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