Preview: Wimbledon: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

To compete in his first Wimbledon final, Jannik Sinner must overcome the tough challenge posed by Novak Djokovic on Centre Court on Friday for a place in Sunday’s final. 

Allaying concerns after his off-colour performance against Grigor Dimitrov and a troublesome elbow, the world No. 1 played efficient tennis against Ben Shelton on Wednesday, setting up a blockbuster showdown with the seven-time champion at the All England Club, who must play the match of his life to crack Sinner's code. 

Match preview

It seemed like much ado about nothing after Sinner’s commanding performance saw him reach a second Wimbledon semi-final at Shelton’s expense, as the top seed claimed a 7-6(2), 6-4, 6-4 victory. 

There was much speculation about the world No. 1’s injured elbow before Wednesday’s semi-final; however, the 24-year-old, apart from brief fears of aggravation in the second set, looked to move freely in this sixth straight victory over the box-office American player, improving to 6-1 in their head-to-head. 

The reward for the three-time Grand Slam champion’s return to form is a second Wimbledon semi-final appearance, two years after his first, where he faced the Serbian star and seven-time champion on these grounds. 

Djokovic won in straight sets then, but his level has markedly improved since, while the Serb, aged 38, is two years older, which highlights Sinner as favourite. 

Nonetheless, the 23-year-old, aiming for his first Slam outside hard courts, will be cautious of an experienced veteran whose desire to outwit the seemingly unbeatable Italian star is higher than ever. 

Whatever Djokovic achieves on Friday will depend on his serving performance, which has fluctuated in his last two wins against Alex de Minaur and Flavio Cobolli following strong displays in the first three rounds against Alexandre Muller, Dan Evans and Miomir Kecmanovic. 

After firing 22, 11 and 16 aces in his initial matches, winning 82%, 89% and 82% of points on his first serve respectively, the seven-time champion, who was broken once in those early wins, has lost serve eight times against De Minaur and Cobolli. 

Having narrowly avoided needing a deciding fifth set in the last-16 victory over the Australian — the 38-year-old won five games in a row to take the fourth set in a 1-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 win — Djokovic was fortunate that his quarter-final opponent’s big-point execution was inconsistent on Wednesday. 

The dips that have marked his last two matches are unlikely to go unpunished against Sinner, increasing the need for a higher level of play if the 24-time Slam champion hopes to break his losing streak against the top seed. 

Fresh from improving his Wimbledon record to 102-12, the seven-time champion aims to secure his 103rd win and continue his streak of reaching the final at the Championships for a seventh consecutive tournament.

Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:  

First round: vs. Luca Nardi 6-4 6-3 6-0  

Second round: vs. Aleksandar Vukic 6-1 6-1 6-3  

Third round: vs. Pedro Martinez 6-1 6-3 6-1  

Fourth round: vs. Grigor Dimitrov 3-6 5-7 2-2 ret. 

Quarter-final: vs. Ben Shelton 7-6(2) 6-4 6-4

Novak Djokovic:  

First round: vs. Alexandre Muller 6-1 6-7(7) 6-2 6-2  

Second round: vs. Dan Evans 6-3 6-2 6-0  

Third round: vs. Miomir Kecmanovic 6-3 6-0 6-4  

Fourth round: vs. Alex de Minaur 1-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 

Quarter-final: Flavio Cobolli 6-7(6) 6-2 7-5 6-4

Head To Head

French Open (2025) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-4 7-5 7-6(3) 

Shanghai Masters (2024) - Final: Sinner 7-6(4) 6-3  

Australian Open (2024) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-1 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3  

Davis Cup Finals (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-2 2-6 7-5   

ATP Finals (2023) - Final: Djokovic 6-3 6-3  

ATP Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Sinner 7-5 6-7(5) 7-6(2)  

Wimbledon (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)    

Wimbledon (2022) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2  

Monte-Carlo Masters (2021) - Round of 32: Djokovic 6-4 6-2

Despite losing their first three encounters on the ATP Tour and four of the first five, Sinner has turned the tables on Djokovic to lead 5-4 in their overall head-to-head, having won four in a row. 

Two wins have come in the Majors on different surfaces, and Sinner, who has only lost serve once in their last three matches, seeks to claim another victory over the Serbian to beat him on all courts. 

However, Djokovic has won their previous two matches at Wimbledon, defeating the Italian in five sets in 2022 and straight sets two years ago, and is looking to secure a third win at SW19 at the expense of the top seed. 

We say: Sinner to win in four sets

Djokovic has fallen to Sinner at the Australian and French Opens over the past 18 months, and losing to the Italian on grass at SW19 could damage the Serb's chances of claiming that 25th Grand Slam. 

If the seven-time Wimbledon champion serves as effectively as he did in the first three rounds, he has a real shot at upsetting the top seed. 

Conversely, if Djokovic’s form fluctuates as it did against De Minaur and Cobolli, Sinner could wrap things up in straight sets. 

While we back the Serbian star to finally take a set on Friday, the No. 1 player’s weapons — his serve, his return, ball-striking on the forehand and backhand wings and his superior movement — should help the leading seed secure victory and set up a final against Carlos Alcaraz or Taylor Fritz.

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