Preview: Wimbledon: Belinda Bencic vs. Iga Swiatek vs - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Two years after their epic three-hour fourth-round Wimbledon clash, Belinda Bencic and Iga Swiatek, both making their semi-final debut at the Championships, battle on Thursday for a place in Saturday’s final.

Swiatek overcame a Liudmila Samsonova comeback attempt in the second set to secure a two-set victory, while Bencic battled past a troublesome foot to beat teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva in two tiebreaks for a semi-final spot.

Match preview

Bencic started the year ranked No. 487, but she now enters her first Wimbledon semi-final at No. 35, with a real shot at a first Grand Slam final.

The 28-year-old, who took a lengthy break from the sport due to maternity leave, missed all four Slams in 2024 but has performed well in the leading events this year.

The former world No. 4 and nine-time WTA champion reached the fourth round in Australia, defeating two former Grand Slam champions — Jelena Ostapenko and Naomi Osaka — before falling to Coco Gauff in the last 16.

Building on that form Down Under, the new mother then claimed the title in Abu Dhabi — her ninth tour-level title — and reached the last 16 in Madrid.

However, an arm injury caused the Swiss player to miss the French Open, and her return to grass was brief as she was beaten by Ekaterina Alexandrova at Bad Homburg.

Undeterred, Bencic has now reached her first Wimbledon semi-final, having never advanced beyond the fourth round at SW19 in her previous eight appearances.

Having taken out one top-10 player in Andreeva, winning 7-6(3), 7-6(2) in Wednesday's quarter-final, the world No. 35, who last reached a semi-final in a Slam at the 2019 US Open, aims to surprise the in-form eighth seed and reach a maiden Slam final.

Few would have predicted Swiatek’s impressive grass season, despite her being a former Wimbledon junior champion, a title she won in 2018.

Since then, the eighth seed has known mostly disappointment at SW19, only reaching the last 16 once in 2021 and the quarters once in 2023 before this year.

After a tough season in which the 22-time WTA title-holder has not added to her collection of tour-level titles and lost her Roland Garros dominance, the 24-year-old has thrived on grass, reaching the final in Bad Homburg and making her first semi-final at the All England Club.

Wednesday's 6-2, 7-5 victory over Samsonova marked the Pole’s eighth grass-court win of the season, surpassing her total of seven in 2023, and the five-time Grand Slam champion is aiming for a ninth to reach her second final of 2025 and second-ever on this surface.

Having become the fourth active player to reach the last four at all four Grand Slams — joining Victoria Azarenka, Karolina Pliskova and Aryna Sabalenka — Swiatek now seeks another victory to secure her spot in Saturday's final.

Tournament so far

Belinda Bencic:  

First round: vs. Alycia Parks 6-0 6-3  

Second round: vs. Elsa Jacquemot 4-6 6-1 6-2  

Third round: vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto 6-4 3-6 7-6(10-7)  

Fourth round: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 7-6(4) 6-4 

Quarter-final: vs. Mirra Andreeva 7-6(3) 7-6(2) 

Iga Swiatek:   

First round: vs. Polina Kudermetova 7-5 6-1   

Second round: vs. Caty McNally 5-7 6-2 6-1   

Third round: vs. Danielle Collins 6-2 6-3   

Fourth round: vs. Clara Tauson 6-4 6-1   

Quarter-final: vs. Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 7-5

Head To Head

Wimbledon (2023) - Fourth round: Swiatek 6-7(4) 7-6(2) 6-3 

United Cup (2023) – Round Robin: Swiatek 6-3 7-6(3) 

US Open (2021) – Fourth round: Bencic 7-6 (12) 6-3 

Adelaide (2021) - Final: Swiatek 6-2 6-2

Although Swiatek leads their head-to-head 3-1, only in the 2021 Adelaide final did the Pole win straightforwardly, with a 6-2, 6-2 victory in just 66 minutes.

Their subsequent meetings have lasted over two hours, with their latest encounter lasting three hours, which Swiatek won to reach her first quarter-final at SW19.

A tie-break has been played in each of their last three matches, including two in that epic fourth-round clash at Wimbledon two years ago, and another is expected in what should be a closely fought semi-final.

Swiatek has only been broken three times — twice each against McNally, Tauson and Samsonova — and has won 80% of her first-serve points and 54% on her second serve, while breaking her opponents 22 times. 

While Bencic’s 68% first-serve points won is inferior to Swiatek’s, the 28-year-old edges the five-time Grand Slam champion on second serves (59%), while she has also claimed 18 games on return, four fewer than the 24-year-old.

We say: Swiatek to win in three sets

Swiatek and Bencic have produced intense tennis in recent matches, and a tense, thrilling contest is expected on Thursday.

Both are serving at a high level, which means the semi-final could come down to the return game. 

With Swiatek having created more chances on return en route to the last four, the Pole is backed to edge out her Swiss rival in three tight sets and reach her first Wimbledon final against Sabalenka or Amanda Anisimova.

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