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Preview: French Open: Naomi Osaka vs. Paula Badosa - prediction, form, head-to-head

Sports Mole previews Monday's French Open first-round match between Naomi Osaka and Paula Badosa, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

A fortnight removed from their Rome contest that never happened, Naomi Osaka and Paula Badosa face off in a French Open first-round match on Monday.

The encounter between the two 27-year-olds is one of the popcorn matches to kick off the second Grand Slam of the year on the women's tour, with question marks surrounding the Spaniard, who only just returned from a back injury in Strasbourg


Match preview

Naomi Osaka reacts at the Australian Open on January 15, 2025© Imago

Osaka returns to Paris for the first time since nearly upsetting Iga Swiatek in last year's second round.

The former world No. 1 player claimed set one before the clay-court queen forced a decider, but the Japanese star came within a successful service game of eliminating Swiatek, only to lose her nerve and ultimately the match.

While the 27-year-old seven-time WTA champion has had a mixed 2025, she enters the second Slam of the season fresh off a maiden clay title in a WTA 125 event on the Saint-Malo dirt at the start of May before reaching the fourth round in Rome.

Having lost just one of her previous nine matches on the surface after a disappointing early exit in Madrid, Osaka bids to improve an average 8-6 record in Paris at Badosa's expense.

Paula Badosa pictured on September 30, 2024© Imago

The Spanish woman has questions to answer ahead of her fifth main-draw French Open involvement.

The erstwhile No. 2 player on the women's tour had a recurrence of the back issue that nearly tanked her career over the previous two months before returning to competitive action in the week prior to the second Major of 2025.

While the world No. 10 was a beneficiary of Marie Bouzkova's retirement in the seventh game of her tournament opener, the Spanish player could not come through a quarter-final three-setter against Liudmila Samsonova, who outlasted the four-time titlist in two hours and 23 minutes.

Technically heading into the French Open without a victory in a completed match on clay this year, Badosa, whose last triumph in a finished contest on the tour was her Miami Open success over Clara Tauson, aims to find her best form in difficult circumstances.

Having been unable to match her 2021 quarter-final appearance in 2022 or 12 months ago, when she exited in the third round both times, the 27-year-old four-time WTA champion hopes to avoid a tournament-opening elimination at this event for the first time.


Head To Head

Osaka and Badosa square off for the first time on the women's tour in the French Open first round, with the victor taking a 1-0 lead in their head-to-head.

The Japanese star holds a 17-6 record this season, significantly outdoing her top-10 opponent, whose 13-8 win-loss record reflects her struggles for form and fitness in 2025.


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We say: Osaka to win in three sets

While Badosa ideally should be the favourite in this matchup, Osaka's recent results on the dirt and the Spaniard's lack of significant match practice mean the four-time Grand Slam champion is expected to progress at the world No. 10's expense.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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