Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Tanzania had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Tanzania win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
