Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.29%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 26.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.17%) and 1-2 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.
