Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 61.59%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 18.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 3-1 (7.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.54%), while for a Lugano win it was 1-2 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Basel in this match.