There will be no extra time or penalties in the event of a draw over two legs, and Bari will ultimately be promoted should that happen, due to finishing higher in the Serie B standings. Therefore, the onus is on Cagliari to maximise home advantage on Thursday, when they can establish a lead to protect during the second leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 51.52%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Bari had a probability of 22.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.49%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (8.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
